I just read Andrew Chen’s Growth is getting hard from intensive competition, consolidation, and saturation. His argument is that we are at a point in the cycle where distribution is controlled by a small number of companies who limit the opportunities for differentiation via marketing. He mentions Google, Apple, and Facebook, and I agree wholeheartedly. Facebook’s growth in revenue per use shows just how successful they’ve been in extracting value from the system and I’m sure we could find similar charts for the other two.
Amazon is the other company that is dominating distribution, and for me most impressive and therefore ultimately the most scary of the lot.
All four of these businesses have monopolistic tendencies that make it hard for startups to compete and get noticed. Chen identifies six trends which continue to make life more difficult:
- Mobile platform consolidation – The App Store and Google Play dominate, and they are in turn dominated by Facebook and Google apps
- Competition on paid channels
- Banner blindness = shitty clickthroughs (now extending to blindness for referral programmes)
- Superior tooling – makes it easier for companies everywhere to be data driven
- Smarter, faster competitors – copying successful new product ideas more and more quickly
- Competing with boredom is easier than competing with Google/Facebook – the bar for new products to gain traction gets ever higher
Against this background, a great product is a startup’s only weapon. Great product gets companies heard above the noise and gives them good conversion rates which in turn allow them to out spend competitors on Facebook and Google. Being data driven and first class at exploiting paid marketing channels is now table stakes.
And the only way to reliably build great product?
To understand your customers better than anybody else.
In our experience the three best ways to get that experience are:
- Work with customers in your target market for years before starting your company (the founders of all three of our last investments have done this)
- Do “Mom test” style interviews with target customers before building your product (not customer surveys or focus groups)
- After you’ve launched build processes that keep you in constant communication with customers and pump them for insights