Q2 US investment data suggests fears of a slowdown are overdone

“Keep calm and carry on” is so deeply ingrained into the British psyche that we’ve made a national joke out of it, but that’s how I feel about business at the moment. Many in the venture world fear for the future following the slowdown in investment activity last year and the Brexit vote two weeks back, but in my opinion there’s a high chance that in the startup world the next couple of years will be similar from a prosperity perspective to 2010-2012. In other words, times will be good, but not crazy.

I say that because the fundamentals are still strong. Change is happening faster and faster which is pushing innovation into smaller and smaller companies, and the overall economy is in reasonable shape.

There are risks to this scenario, to be sure, including a messy divorce from Europe and a crash in the venture market, but I don’t think these risks are worse than other systemic risks we’ve seen in recent times – e.g. the Greek debt crisis.

I’m writing all this now because the June investment data from Mattermark is out for the US. Their post is titled Series A Rounds Slip in Q2, but to me the chart below shows that activity is pretty much flat over twelve months. That’s better than the picture looked at the end of May when we feared activity might be trending down. We shouldn’t over-egg the significance of what is so far only a one month pick up in June, but to me this data says we should keep calm, and carry on.

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