Short term clarity vs long term upside

We’re all happy in the Forward Partners office this morning because one of our partner companies has just sent an update showing they’ve been growing at 30% per week for the last fourteen weeks. That’s quite some growth and I couldn’t be happier for the team there. It’s well deserved.

But it got me thinking about the trade off between short term clarity and long term upside in seed stage investing. Every business that’s successful raising venture capital has a plan that gets them to a massive exit, or at least that’s the way it should be. That plan will show short term activities that generate value and significant revenues in the out years. The interesting thing is that all the plans I can think of are noticeably stronger at one end or the other. Either there’s a lot of clarity about the short term plan but the upside story is hazy, or it’s clear that if they nail it the upside is huge, but there’s uncertainty about how to achieve success in the first six to twelve months.

To be clear all this is a matter of degree. Good companies that get funded have good answers to the short term and long term questions, they just don’t have excellent answers to both. Not when they’re at the seed stage.

Deep tech investments (think Palantir) tend to be stronger on the long term than the short term, whereas ecommerce and marketplace businesses (think Amazon or ebay) are generally stronger on the short term. People are successful investing on either side of this trade off, but in our seed stage experience companies with relatively more clarity on the short term have better chances of success. They are more likely to generate momentum in the short term which gives them the platform to raise more money so they have time to develop clarity on the big picture. Conversely I’ve seen too many companies with amazing upside stories fail because they didn’t make enough progress after their seed round. Momentum is everything.

All of this is part of the reason Forward Partners focuses on transactional businesses in fashion, healthcare, travel, fintech and so on. We’re invest very early and these types of companies are able to quickly generate momentum and get the proof points they need to raise their next round of finance, as we’re seeing with our partner who’s growing at 30% per week.