The future of mobile ecommerce

We’ve been doing a good deal of thinking about the future of ecommerce as the world goes mobile. As we all know people are increasingly accessing the internet and shopping from their smartphones (one of our more recent investments has 81% of it’s traffic from mobile), and within mobile people are spending a larger and larger share of their time in apps at the expense of browsers. That presents a challenge for retailers of occasional purchases whose customers don’t use them often enough to download an app. On the web these retailers found their customers via search, but that doesn’t work as well on mobile.

So how will discovery work on mobile?

In a couple of different ways, I think.

Firstly some apps will aggregate goods from lots of retailers and discovery will happen in app. Amazon is the best example here, but different types of discovery are appropriate for different types of purchase and whilst Amazon works well for commodity goods it doesn’t work so well for higher value goods where the purchase is emotionally driven. That creates space for startups to build discovery experiences focused on specific verticals. Good examples include Houzz in interior design, Thread.com and Stylect in fashion, and Top10 in travel. We have invested a lot on this theme and the last three examples are partner companies (note Thread is working on their mobile app).

Key to success for these companies is building a loyal customer base with high life time values. The aggregation needs to be broad enough that transactions occur frequently but narrow enough that product discovery is truly engaging. Strong brands will be built on the back of great product ranges and strong discovery experiences.

Secondly, some companies will focus on a small range of their own products. They will be primarily web based (including mobile web) and may not need an app. Strong brands will be built on the back of amazing products and first class marketing. Facebook is the best channel for many of these companies, for now at least. Bonobos in the US is a good example, and amongst our partners I would point to Lost My Name, Big Health, and Spoke.

An interesting question for the first group is whether the aggregation moves from apps into the OS layer, or something similar. There are lots of hints we are headed in this direction:

  • Baidu surfaces recommendations from maps
  • Facebook’s Instant Articles pulls news discovery into Facebook
  • Amazon’s Echo device enables re-ordering via voice command

If aggregation does move to the OS layer then in the short term partnerships will become critical drivers of traffic and custom, and in the long run I hope we will see a meritocratic discovery process emerge.

Update: Benedict Evans argues here that the trend within mobile towards apps is concentrated in a small number of apps (mostly Facebook and YouTube) and hence less significant for ecommerce companies than one would think