A cambrian explosion in AI – but how will new services surface?

Dag Kittlaus, founder of Siri, wrote on Techcrunch yesterday to predict that A Cambrian explosion in AI is coming. He notes that there has been “massive uptake of assistant services spurred by Apple’s Siri, Google’s Now and Microsoft’s Cortana” but says these services are still in their infancy. The missing piece is an ecosystem of services that work with these assistants. That would enable the Holy Grail of an assistant that intelligently finds and uses whatever apps or services we need for a given task – just like in the movie Her from earlier this year.

Need a babysitter for tomorrow night in a new location? The assistant should know the age of your kids, find a service that matches your price profile and then make a reservation, maybe asking you to confirm first.

I have just been looking for a babysitting service in a new location, and it wasn’t easy, so that that sounds very exciting, and I very much look forward to it becoming a reality.

However, it’s not clear to me how the discovery process will work. Healthy ecosystems have some way for quality to float to the top. Examples include ranking or voting systems as we see in Product Hunt and Stack Overflow, algorithms that incorporate user signals e.g. Page Rank, and manual system that takes user feedback as a core input e.g. the app stores.

The whole point of assistant services is that they choose services for us. In the babysitting example above I don’t want the assistant to come back with three options and make me choose, I want one option that I’m happy with. Before I trust the assistant I might want to hear about second and third options to make sure I’m getting the best, but I imagine I would stop bothering with that pretty quickly.

However, if assistant systems make the choice for us then user signals are limited to feedback given on the service. New services, by definition have little if any feedback, making it unlikely that assistants will recommend them and that innovation would suffer. That’s one nightmare scenario. The other is that the assistants only recommend services which have a relationship with whoever wrote the assistant – i.e. Siri only recommends services that have built a relationship with Apple.

In my view app store owners already have too much influence over which apps we use, and that runs counter to the original promise of an open internet. My fear is that assistants, wonderful though they will be, will worsen this problem.