Robots and artificial intelligence are replacing jobs

Manufacturing output vs jobs

This chart shows that manufacturing has become decoupled from employment and explains why people are predicting that half of US jobs could be done by computers. We are in for a period of considerable social dislocation.

As a society we’ve been through these sorts of changes before, most notably with agriculture which used to employ c100% of the population and now employs 2-3%. Every time so far there has been a difficult period during which politicians got excited and society changed, but ultimately new jobs emerged to fill the gap. The transitions weren’t easy, but they were ultimately completed successfully. Some people are arguing that this time round things are different, largely because the jobs are being destroyed faster than during previous transitions and that there won’t be enough time for new jobs to be created.

My thinking on this subject has a three strands:

  1. Whether you view this development as desirable or undesirable there is no stopping it. Technological progress will continue at pace and attempts to stop it by individual governments only succeed in forcing innovation overseas, and slowing innovation and hurting the economy locally. Witness what happened when Bush banned stem cell research in the US.
  2. The next twenty years will be a disruptive time in our society and there is a risk of continued high unemployment as whole industries become automated. Governments would be well advised to anticipate this by extending retraining and back-to-work programmes (and potentially adopting more redistributive taxation policies), but either way people will eventually find new productive things to do and the economy will re-adjust.
  3. After that adjustment the world will be a better place as more of us will be doing more interesting and rewarding jobs whilst the machines do more of the dull repetitive stuff.

In summary we are headed to a better place, probably much better, but getting there will be difficult and we would be well advised to accept that there is no choice but to embark on the journey and to prepare well.

 

  • James Penman

    ‘The robots are coming and will terminate your jobs’: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0ca021c0-680b-11e3-a905-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2p8whywbL Suspect you’ve seen it but an interesting piece a few days back on FT.

  • http://www.theequitykicker.com brisbourne

    Thanks James. It’s a good piece.
    N

  • Fabio De Bernardi

    Good piece Nic and quite ‘timely’ for me as I’m reading the brilliant biography of Alan Turing bby Andrew Hodges and there is a lot of foretelling of what machines will be able to do and the relationship with humans. Also, I think that the process you described started alresdy with the rise of China and the cheaper labour/products which disrupted industries and jobs in the West. I completely agree with you that this is nothing new and after the shock the system will readjust and will be better. There will be casualties in the process and the number might be significant, but this process is not going to stop anyway, so we better adapt to it fast!

  • http://www.theequitykicker.com brisbourne

    Exactly!

  • Jay Viradiya

    Automation is troubling for human being Because now a day’s large
    scale industries Firing their employees .Because large scale industries
    needs their production fast so it implement the machines to their
    industries and no space human being. So I thought that Robots
    are replacing humans. I think that Technologies are very
    good for industries because with the help of Technologies we can
    reduced our time as well as money. But if the technologies are on its way then
    it’s a big trouble for human being.

    Check it on:
    http://techwaq.com/ever-imagined-robots-replacing-humans/

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