This chart comes from the OECD who are widely respected for their forecasts. By 2060 they predict the Eurozone will be the fourth largest economy in the world after China, India and the USA. The USA will have fallen from first place to third. This change will bring profound shifts in global politics and trade rules. That’s inevitable given that China and India have very different ideas to the USA and Europe about what constitutes ‘fair’ trade.
2060 is still a long way off though, and the rules of the trade game will change only slowly. Those starting companies now can reasonably expect that the usual 5-10 years to get to scale and/or liquidity will be played out in an environment not too dissimilar to the one we have today (although there is a clear opportunity to predict and pre-empt the new environment). Those starting companies in five to ten years won’t have the same luxury. For those of us in the investment game this analysis suggests China and India will loom large in our strategies for either our next fund or the fund after.