Shift from PC to mobile faster than expected

By July 12, 2012 No Comments
[Update: typo in title corrected]

Mobile is growing partly because it is expanding our use of computing and partly at the expense of desktops and laptops. PC sales data out yesterday shows that PC substitution, the second the driver of growth, is happening faster than expected.

As you can see from the tables below global PC shipments in Q2 were flat on the year before, meaning that in aggregate PCs are not participating in any of the growth in computing globally, and in the US PC shipments were down 11% in the same period. The US is one of the worlds most developed markets in computing and where the US goes I would expect the world to follow.

Analysts at IDC had expected PCs to fare better, predicting global shipments to grow 2.1% and the US decline to be 6%.

Adoption of new technologies typically follows an S-curve:

Chart 1. Technology Adoption Stages

I think we around the knee of the curve in mobile now. Exciting times ahead.