Comments on: Eric Schmidt’s 5-10 year view on news

By: Finance Geek » Socially responsible responsible startups are increasingly important

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:59:43 +0000

[...] written a couple of posts recently about how I see the world looking in 5-10 years and I see this as another in that [...]

By: brisbourne

brisbourne — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:17:22 +0000

Some more good thoughts Katherine. And thanks for another interesting link.

By: brisbourne

brisbourne — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:17:22 +0000

Some more good thoughts Katherine. And thanks for another interesting link.

By: K. Warman Kern

K. Warman Kern — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:39:20 +0000

I agree with you that content creators are going independent and lowering their risk by building a relationship with hardcore "taste maker" consumers. But the rewards will still be the most lucrative when they leverage their consumer relationship in a deal with media programming brands like Disney, Viacom, who can achieve critical mass by negotiated favorable deals with cable companies, ISPs, and wireless, etc.

The big change I'm going out on a limb predicting is the relationship between the media programming brands and the cable companies, ISPs, wireless, etc. My prediction is based on a very simple premise: "follow the money."

Media revenues flipped from being ad driven to consumer driven in 2004 when consumer spending on cable, wireless, isps grew total consumer media spending to exceed ad revenues in importance to the market.

The big media programming companies haven't done anything about this yet for two reasons. First, ad revenues were still growing and higher than ever before. And second, selling, servicing, and collecting money from consumers is a lot more complex and expensive than calling on a few advertisers and their agencies.

But today, we've had budget cuts from an economic crisis and these dollars are not coming back. The biggest premium ad spenders are out due to the Anheuser Busch sale & the collapse of the car industry. The below premium ad spenders, like P&G, are shifting ad dollars into custom digital publishing and other non-traditional advertising vehicles.

Suddenly, those consumer revenue dollars looks like something to go after.

Right now they are trying to turn the dial slowly with "TV Everywhere," paywalls, and increasing "re-transmission" fees.

Next, they will start thinking like a company who markets to consumers. They will package content, social media technology, customer service and ecommerce technologies to start selling value added media brand experiences directly to consumers. Disney's Iger is already hinting at approaching media lilke a marketing company here: http://bit.ly/1BKQXK.

Once they get into this, the market will learn that consumers will pay more, cumulatively, for a la carte entertainment brand experiences, than they will for access utility. Then the negotiation dynamics will change between programmers and cable, isps, wireless companies.

How long will this take? We'll see.

By: brisbourne

brisbourne — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:07:24 +0000

Thanks for the pointer to Dailyperfect!

By: brisbourne

brisbourne — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:47:38 +0000

Hi Katharine – I'm enjoying the comments on this post! I think you are right that we need to think about long form and shorter content differently. The convenience of mobile might reinforce the trend towards shorter pieces though.
I'm not sure what you mean by branding and packaging, but from reading your blog post I think my vision of the future wher content emanates from a larger number of smaller companies than today is different to yours. Brands will be active associating themselves with and partially paying for these producers.

By: jkaljundi

jkaljundi — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:20:23 +0000

For a demo showcase how the personalized news might look like, check out http://www.dailyperfect.com/ (an Estonian company from one of the Skype founding engineers). Agree it will be hybrid (as will ad networks), using many inputs to fine-tune the formulas. Social is just one of many inputs, as are your previous actions, interests, favourites, peer group habits etc.

By: K. Warman Kern

K. Warman Kern — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:10:49 +0000

Not all news will be read on the mobile platform. The headlines and the appetizers will be for sure. Shortform content may be looked at and interacted with while "mobile." We will consume a large volume of information quickly this way. The result is there will be demand for longform content to be consumed and participated with in a more intensive way (the tool will not be as significant as the setting and motive). We may not consume as much volume of data this way, but we'll spend a lot of time learning and participating with this content. Net: the facility to consume more information quickly will create more time for content we learn from and actively participate with.

The implication of all this is that packaging and brand marketing are going to be much more critical to the future of media. I did a post called 2020 this week http://bit.ly/4xMi2L that imagines what the media marketplace will look like when, media programming companies, ranging from Disney to Harpo to Time to McClatchy, buy content, technology, package them and market them as brands.

Katherine Warman Kern
@comradity

By: brisbourne

brisbourne — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:24:23 +0000

Good point – eric doesn't mention how the personalisation will work. I would bet on a hybrid of social and AI.

By: Wallen

Wallen — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:17:09 +0000

Agree with you Nic on your thesis. What I'm wondering is what is not in your bullet points. Who will deliver these news ? Will it be peer-to-peer driven/human based (twitter logic) or a big algorithm guessing your interest based on key words or alike (google logic) ? I tend to bet on the first one.