At the Web2.0 Summit in San Francisco a couple of weeks back Mary Meeker gave a presentation which included the three slides below that show there will be a huge opportunity in mobile over the coming years and attempt to predict where within mobile that opportunity will fall as the mobile wave evolves.
In a nutshell she argues that the mobile is the next big computing wave, that each wave is 10x the size of the previous wave and that the opportunity for startups withiin each wave runs in the same order – infrastructure, software/services, content, commerce.
I went back to this deck two weeks after the event because I have been scratching my head looking for the opportunity in mobile at the moment. Obviously there is a heck of a lot going on, but most of the activity seems to be in either really big companies (Apple, Google, HTC) or in companies that are hits driven or may not scale to venture size (e.g. iPhone app developers).
My instinct has been to look for consumer oriented apps/services and maybe platforms but I haven’t come across much of interest. Maybe I should be looking a level or two deeper in the network.
The whole presentation is embedded below. There is a lot of great data, but in particular I would point to the pace of mobile adoption (slide 33), the prediction of a 2010 inflexion point for 3G (slide 35), the falling importance of carrier decks (slide 46), and the 66x projected growth in mobile IP traffic by 2013 (slide 55).