There is a lot of excitement at the moment about the transformative power of real-time social media, not least on this blog, but the path from here to success for Twitter et al is not straight forward. As well as the big issue of business model I have previously written about the challenges for Twitter in keeping the service useful as it scales.
When I read Evgeny Morozov’s excellent post this morning entitled Swine flu: Twitter’s power to misinform I started thinking that services which seek to mine the realtime data flow face a challenge in understanding the distorting effects ‘group-think’ that hadn’t occured to me before.
Evgeny put it like this:
anyone trying to make sense of how Twitter’s “global brain” has reacted to the prospect of the swine flu pandemic is likely to get disappointed. The “swine flu” meme has so far that misinformed and panicking people armed with a platform to broadcast their fears are likely to produce only more fear, misinformation and panic
too many Twitter conversations about swine flu seem to be motivated by desires to fit in, do what one’s friends do (i.e. tweet about it) or simply gain more popularity.
Or in other words with the swine flu pandemic a positive feedback loop has been created within Twitter which has taken the tweets out of synch with reality. I would also posit that the same sort of positive feedback loops can be created with other topics that become hot, as everyone wants to be seen to be in the know. The ease of Tweeting combined with the lack of context inherent in the 140 character message make it easier than ever before for the rumour mill to get going.
This is the real-time media distortion effect that I mention in the title to this post.
Anyone trying to get the most out of mining the emerging real time data stream needs to somehow take account of this distortion in their algorithms. There is some value in simply knowing what people are talking about at any given moment, but there is much more value in analysing the contents of their utterings to figure out what is going to happen next in the real world. In this case that would mean figuring out whether it is the pandemic that is spreading or just hysteria.