What is certain at the moment is that we are in the midst of deep recession and that ad spend in traditional media is declining, often rapidly. However there isn’t a lot of agreement on what online ad spend is going to be this year.
Here are some of the data points:
- POSITIVE: ZenithOptimedia today released revised global ad spend predictions projecting that internet ad spend will rise by 8.6% this year, rising to 12.1% of total ad spend as the overall market falls by 6.9% (I orginally saw this in the FT but I’m linking to Reuters because they don’t have a paywall)
- NEGATIVE: as reported in Techcrunch yesterday on the back of Comscore data showing declines in US search query volume and checks with search engine marketers JP Morgan are predicting Google revenues for Q109 will be 2% less than the year ago quarter and 13% down on Q408.
- POSITIVE: Back in December Barclays Capital predicted 6.1% growth in online ad spending to $25.1bn
- POSITVE: BernsteinResearch predicts global online ad spend will grow 5.9% this year – from February
- NEGATIVE: UBS predicts online ad growth this year of 1.4% – from Feb
Within these aggregate figures there is generally more optimism around search than around display.