To dramatically simplify his argument the reasons are:
- After 2000 there was fat everywhere in tech – but enterprises have become much more disciplined since then
- Tech has become much more pervasive and central to strategy, making it more difficult to cut – particularly as customers now also live on tech
- There are now burning tech issues that need addressing (virtualisation, social computing, mobile, green IT and SOA) – this wasn’t the case last time round
The full post is well worth a read, but the message is clear, we can expect tough times but predictions of armagedon should be treated with care.
Note that this is about tech rather than media.