The FT reported this morning that HMV is projecting physical sales of CDs will drop by only 26% by 2010. Similarly DVD sales are projected to fall by 17%.
I would assume that HMV are not adopting bottom of the range forecasts for declines in their core products, but nonetheless these numbers show that in big markets change takes a long time. In the venture industry we get caught up in the inevitability of massive market disruption and these numbers are a reminder that even in a market as obviously doomed as CD sales there is still years to run.
On the positive side small declines in large markets usually mean massive growth in the new markets that are replacing them – in this case digital music and video.
That is the sort of thing that gets me out of bed in the morning.