…..and it is very different from today.
In the paper Navigating the media divide IBM sets out a view of the future that has a lot in common with some of the stuff I have been saying here on The Equity Kicker.
We see the same disruption of the media value chain coming, although they are perhaps less radical than I am.
- Distributors will come under pressure – this theme runs throughout the report, and it isn’t surprising since the internet is emerging as a cheap substitute for satellite and cable – this chimes with my prediction that Internet TV will mean the end for channels
- New aggregators will emerge – companies like Last.fm and TIOTI stand to win big here. IBM predicts aggregators will have revenues of $50bn by 2010 – there is space for a couple of start up winners in that number!
Interestingly this doesn’t mean that traditional media will die. It will lose market share for sure, but IBM see it still as a $340bn segment in 2010.
The first paragraph has some good soundbites that put the scale of internet TV into context:
The number of unique visitors to MySpace.com has now surpassed the 50 million mark – something akin to the number of US households that tune into the Super Bowl
Every day consumers around the world watch about 100 million videos on YouTube – putting that number in context, the top 15 British primetime television shows combined attract about 100m viewers, as do the top 4 U.S. shows
